One year later

Here we are exactly one year after Trump’s inauguration. Bitcoin price is 10% down in USD and 20% down in my currency. Bitcoin apologists have been long saying that bitcoin is a direct rival to precious metals. It’s obvious that bitcoin lost that contest decisively. Bitcoin isn’t perceived as a safe haven in times of turmoil and it won’t change in the near future. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and the time is bad for this type of assets. It all boils down to one man – Donald Trump. He singlehandedly ruined crypto on all grounds possible. In retrospect his inauguration and launch of his and his wife’s coins was a textbook top signal. Indeed my portfolio was never so much up as exactly one year ago (even on 6th of October). Trump needlessly politicised crypto thus driving away an ever-increasing bunch of folks who hate his guts. An associations with scams, rug pulls, insider trading, pardoning of his associates will be very hard to rinse in years to come. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve came and went amounting to a nothingburger, tempest in a teapot and – obviously – sell the news event (because they wouldn’t buy more bitcoin). But above all Trump ushered in so called strategic uncertainty in politics, economic and social life. Every time he opens his mouth or shitposts, markets get spooked, whether it’s about never ending tariffs saga, prosecuting FED chair, executing members of Congress, bombing foes and friends alike, provoking domestic unrest et cetera. It’s never a dull day with him around. And it won’t be for the next 3 years which is an awful scenario for a risk-on asset like bitcoin. I won’t say bitcoin is dead. Bitcoin clearly is not dead. But it’s kinda suspended in the limbo of Trump’s shenanigans, unable to fly with its wings constantly being cut. What’s worse, I think Trump is just getting started. He’s bent on building his “legacy” and his eccentricity will only deepen as he gets older, more detached and politically weaker with plummeting ratings. He won’t step down peacefully, he’d rather blow up entire country. That’s no time to be in crypto. Barring some black swan scenario (like Trump declaring bitcoin a national currency or China embracing bitcoin) I see only pain ahead.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.