The “cycle” is only a series of coincidental events ROUGHLY 3-4 years apart. They have zero to do with halving and are far from predetermined.

BTC peaked in 2017. I don’t know why, but speculative assets were hot.

THREE years later In 2020 Covid stimulus and 0% interest rates meant cash was free to borrow and abundant, which led to the big bitcoin run and all the alt coins and NFTs in late 2020. This is also where we got all the SPACs that eventually failed. The market was frothy.

The following crash coincided with interest rate hikes and inflation. Less free money to pump it.

When Trump was elected in late 2024, the recent big run happened because he promised to be the crypto president and everyone expected deregulation — kicked off by his meme coin scams. The pump basically started the moment he was declared winner and since then people have been using the pump as exit liquidity.

Now everyone knows that the deregulation pump has led to nothing, which means we are out of buying the rumor and now selling the news. The administration will not save bitcoin.

You can draw all the lines on a chart you want, but this all has been due to unique events driven by nothing more than fiat money supply, interest rates, and the greater fool theory.

So what’s the event four years from now that will lead to another pump? Free money isn’t likely. Can’t deregulate more. Governments can’t help. There is no intrinsic value, and normal people are not getting sucked into the get rich quick hype anymore.

The “four year cycle” hype is the only thing to look forward to, because for some reason it is being viewed as a law of nature instead of overactive pattern recognition.